From 30 years of elections around the world: "The most important factor determining a candidate’s success compared with his rivals in the same party turns out to be his or her personal ability to connect with the public."
How opinions form?
Person-to-person process is enough to explain the data! "In their model, they supposed that each candidate starts out trying to convince others to vote in their favour. Those he or she convinces, then try to convince others. These influences percolate through the scoial net until everyone has made a decision."
Consequence
Candidates should focus on WHO they contact - influential people may easily convince others.
More on this pdf.
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